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This year has been a year of surprises. Starting with the unusually strong rally in technology and especially companies that were widely expected to go bankrupt, the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI that transformed an industry and kicked off yet another bubble, a jump in new home sales because existing homeowners with low mortgages are not keen on selling, and GDP for Q1 2023 revised upwards to a 2% growth rate.
Jay Powell is probably both bewildered and relieved at the same time. Bewildered because despite one of the fastest paces of interest rate increases in the last several decades that brought both regional banks and several categories of REITs to their knees, the economy and the market seem to be humming along just fine.