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Silicon Valley Bank Sold For A Song – InsideArbitrage Friday Wrap

  • March 31, 2023

FRIDAY WRAP

Our list of curated tweets for the current week

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Special Situations

First Citizens “paid” a negative $16bn in equity for Silicon Valley Bank.

Some think depositors should be watchdogs for the banks.

I spent Monday in DC meeting with lawmakers to discuss the problems in banking system.

My other conclusion is there isn’t a sense of urgency in DC to tackle this problem.

Wells Fargo on $ATVI merger arb trade. Current stock price is offering 10:1 risk/reward.

Credit Suisse failed to disclose nearly $100mn in secret offshore accounts belonging to a single family of US taxpayers, a US investigation found

Britain said it would investigate Broadcom's acquisition of VMware in depth after the U.S. chipmaker offered no immediate undertakings in response to its concerns about the impact of the $61 billion deal on the server market.

ARKO urges Travel Centers of America to seriously consider acquisition proposal

$ta from dropping dead yesterday to rising today due to filing that states that party G offered $92 a share but required significant third party financing in this environment and it needed 30 days to conduct additional due diligence.

It's a deal: the Canadian government will announce the approval of Rogers' takeover of Shaw tomorrow.

Wow, that was a bit unexpected! Oak Street Health gains as the antitrust waiting period for CVS acquisition expired

$osh “CVS Health Corp. now expects to close its acquisition of Oak Street Health Inc. in the first half of 2023.” Careful of getting too aggressive here.

Good to see the CMA walking back some of its more ludicrous positions.

$TGNA "Put simply, the Media Bureau is being allowed to scuttle this deal because they don't seem to think I should own these stations. Who knows why?"

$NNDM submitted a revised offer to acquire Stratasys Ltd. $SSYS for $19.55 per share in cash.

Lyft Co-Founders Tap Out – C-Suite Transitions

$M Macy's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Gennette plans to retire in February 2024.

another day, another carve-out: drug distributor Cardinal Health is mulling a sale of its nuclear medicine business, sources say

Madison Square Garden Entertainment $MSGE Board approves spin-off of its traditional live entertainment business, which is expected to be completed on April 20th.

$BNTX announces a new $500M share repurchase program.

S&P 500 share repurchase spending declined in late 2022

Dave & Buster’s $PLAY Reports Record Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year End 2022 Financial Results

Investing

Investors who bought the cheapest stocks based on a PE outperformed the market by more than 5% per year, achieving an annual return of 16.3%.

Academics have found high tracking error to be associated with good long-term performance.

We are coming up on 1 year anniversary of the start of “everything is going to explode” while, frankly, only tech names posted disasters and everything else posted *banner* results/paid down debt/retired 10-20% of their shares.

Free article summarizing my $BABA investment thesis

As of yesterday, the combination of $AAPL, $NVDA, $MSFT, $META, $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $CRM and $AMD have contributed to ~160% of the $SPX gains on the year

U. S. Economy

This isn't a forecast or anything, but if NGDP growth is 6% in 2023 and 2024 (we haven't had a sub-6% quarter since covid) and S&P 500 earnings are flat at $220, at the end of 2024 S&P earnings as a % of US NGDP would be back at 2019 levels

No recession? Well, there sure is one in corporate profits, with today’s revised Q4 GDP report showing that pre-tax earnings collapsed at an -18% annual rate for the second straight quarter and contracting on a YoY basis for the first time since 2020 Q2.

Consensus expectations are for a sharp improvement in #earnings with Q1 being the trough.

 

Companies mentioning ''job cuts'' more often than ''labor shortage'' in recent earnings calls.

 

Housing

West Coast housing prices taking a beating

RH CEO on earnings call: "I've never seen a luxury home market down 45% a quarter ever, not even in 2008 and 2009.

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