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Merger Arbitrage Mondays – The Twitter – Musk Saga Unfolds

  • May 2, 2022

Merger activity remained steady last week with four new deals announced and two deals completed. Two of the four deals announced were potential deals in the works.

The month of April ended with 16 new deals announced for an aggregate deal value of $92.92 billion. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (TWTR) announced last Monday was the largest deal announced last week and the most talked about deal this year.

Twitter (TWTR)

Looking back over the years, I have written about Twitter multiple times going all the way back to 2009. In an article titled “Customer Service ala Twitter Style“, I had written about Twitter, a micro-blogging site that had exploded in popularity and more than doubled its unique visitors in March 2009 to 9.3 million. I was reminiscing about the company Kitchenette SF, that was discussed in the customer service article, with a friend and ex-colleague recently and neither of us could remember the name of that pop-up food truck. In 2017, I wrote about Jack Dorsey’s well-timed $7 million purchase of Twitter in an Insider Weekends article. The same year I wrote another article on Seeking Alpha titled ‘10 Things Worth Celebrating About Twitter‘, highlighting as the title suggests, aspects of Twitter that were worth celebrating.

Earlier this year, in February 2022, in a Seeking Alpha article titled Broken Growth Stocks: Twitter, I talked about how Twitter had been a show me story for years with a lot of potential that was yet to be realized. In spite of seeing significant revenue growth since going public the stock had not appreciated much. Having outperformed Facebook (FB) during the last five years and with a new CEO at the helm, the future looked bright for Twitter. We wrote the following about our valuation model in that article and the intrinsic value of $55.16 we came up with was remarkably close to the price Elon Musk ended up offering for Twitter,

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