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Airline Pilots Betting on Spirit -JetBlue Merger – InsideArbitrage Friday Wrap

  • December 8, 2023

FRIDAY WRAP

Our list of curated tweets for the current week

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Special Situations

Mergers & Acquisitions

M&A heating up in #biotech $ABBV buying neuro play Cerevel. $CERE $8.7B

timeline to close is the spread reason imo. $ABBV buying $IMGN & $CERE in a 2 week frame

One more fun stat from the $HA / $ALK merger: the bid represents ~$670m of premium for HA against last week's share price.

Abcam $ABCM acquisition by Danaher $DHR approved by the High Court of Justice of England and Wales

$XOM $PXD Exxon and Pioneer continue to expect their merger to close in H1-2024

Also investigating Chevron buying Hess. "Federal Trade Commission is investigating ExxonMobil's $60B deal to acquire a Texas oil company"

Renesas Electronics Extends Tender Offer and Receives Taiwan Merger Control Approval for Proposed Acquisition of Sequans Communications $SQNS

$LBC and $WAFD extended the Outside Date of their Merger Agreement from Nov 30, 2023 to Feb 29, 2024.

Woodside and Santos open talks over $52bn oil and gas merger

Spirit – JetBlue Trial

One of my favorite things about attending closing arguments for $JBLU / $SAVE was sitting next to two airline pilots who were betting on it, and had been in attendance for multiple days of the trial.

My only comment to those reading recaps of today’s $JBLU / $SAVE closings is: if someone says “Judge Young wasn’t buying [argument]” or “Judge Young reacted negatively” do not place any weight on that recap.

Judge wanted a settlement badly, DOJ refused to compromise

Stock Buybacks

Marriott International $MAR capital return to shareholders routinely exceeds its adj. free cash flow (FCF conversion is ~50%)

By far. like orders of magnitude MSFT was the stock I have made the most money on.

US equity #REITs have ramped up share repurchase activity in the third quarter of 2023 according to a recent report by @SPGlobal .

$OSG - Declares its first dividend ever of 6 cents and adds another $25M to its Share Repurchase Plan.

The oil giant ($xom) plans to increase its annual share repurchase program to $20 billion in 2024 through 2025 after the Pioneer merger closes, up from $17.5 billion in 2023.

$EVO - More than 2/3rd of the recently announced share repurchase authorization was done in 5 days.

$LSTR 💠Declares $2/share special dividend

Victory Capital announces new $100 million share repurchase program

$MA New $11 billion share repurchase authorisation from Mastercard.

$NOC Northrop Grumman announces additional $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization

Just avoid net share issuance.

The @SECGov had until Nov 30 to "correct the defects” in the economic analysis that the 5th Circuit identified in the Share Repurchase Disclosure Modernization Rule.

Spin-Off

Warren Buffett isn’t a prolific spin-off investor.

$EW Edwards Lifesciences announcing intent to spin-off Critical Care at the end of 2024

Management Changes

$ABNB has a new strategy that puts growth front and center, as CEO Brian Chesky writes in an email to employees that "we're now ready to turn the corner."

Chewy Names David Reeder as Next Finance Chief $CHWY "comes from semiconductor manufacturer" presumably not chewy

Wow, more huge Spotify news. The company's CFO, Paul Vogel, will exit on March 31, 2024.

Activist investor Ancora pushing for Disney to add Nelson Peltz to board - Axios

Well $CCI CEO Jay Brown just bailed on this Barclays Global Technology Conference appearance after Elliott got more momentum for his ouster.

Investing

Elon Musk's SpaceX has initiated discussions about selling insider shares at a price that values the closely held company at $175 billion or more, a valuation that would make it one of the world's 75 biggest companies by market capitalization.

Amazon is ending the use of PayPal's Venmo payment service for purchases with the online retail giant, a little more than a year after adding the option

Asana current Q seems like a pretty low bar but back of envelope math: street looking for 100M of new biz this year that will cost them 350M in S&M to generate. Longer term this reminds me of Domo.

$MBI stock closed at $7.38 today

GameStop disclosed the board approved a new policy that will allow CEO Ryan Cohen to invest the company’s excess cash in equities

Okay so Chewy $CHWY reports earnings and it's not great. Beat Adj EPS but missed on sales.

The U.S. Economy

Big consulting news: McKinsey just cut the size of their next partner class by ~120

Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings at highest level since 2010

The New York Fed's measure of underlying inflation (the "multivariate core trend" rate) ticked down to 2.6% in October from 2.9% in September

 

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