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Consulting With God – InsideArbitrage Friday Wrap

  • November 10, 2023

FRIDAY WRAP

Our list of curated tweets for the current week

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Special Situations

Mergers & Acquisitions

In my entire career of following M&A, I’m pretty sure this the first time I’ve seen God on a deal advisory team.

A 17.3% spread on the Capri - Tapestry merger is the strangest thing I have seen in the arb world in a while.

Versace -12% globally. Was supposed to account for more than all of $CPRI valuation.

Capri Holdings Q3 results hurt by revenue declines across all of its brands

The $JBLU $SAVE #DOJ trial is done until next Tues.

$SAVE trades like 90% of their revenues comes from shipping roombas.

Yield Guru: Flight to Income – Option Play for SAVE

Today, Crescent Point announced the acquisition of Hammerhead for $2.6 billion.

Crescent Point Energy $CPG plans to acquire Hammerhead Energy $HHRS in a proposed cash & share deal.

$GAN taken out at $1.97 by Sega Sammy, about a 80% premium versus when this thread went out.

Wow what a crazy premium Real bet on Middle America spending power

It would be a surprise if she doesn't say she is concerned! $SGEN $PFE

$ABCM $DHR- Abcam ticks higher amid report of China approval for sale to Danaher

Abcam shareholders approve proposal for Danaher $DHR to acquire all of the outstanding shares of $ABCM for $24.00 share in cash

Eli Lilly $LLY again extends tender offer to acquire all of POINT Bio $PNT at $12.50/share.

Potential Deals

Wow!!!! $ASTR went public via SPAC at $2.1B valuation with overly-optimistic (aka bullshit) financial projections

Activist investor Elliott targets drugmaker BioMarin

Stock Buybacks

$HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. boosts share repurchases by an additional $3.0 billion

$NRG Energy Announces $950M Accelerated Share Repurchase

$HIMS Crushed Q3 Earnings

$RILY B. Riley Financial reports Q3 results

Seneca Foods $SENEA bought back nearly half a million shares since July and reduced its share count by 6%.

Bumble increases their share repurchase authorization from $150 million to $300 million.

 

$TGNA completed its initial $300 million accelerated share repurchase on August 31, 2023

the Magnificent Seven - The Magic of Share Repurchase Programs

The board of directors of Monster Beverage Corporation has approved authorised a new share repurchase programme worth $500 million

Berkshire has recently been increasing its repurchases: it repurchased $800 million of its shares from October 2-24, $660 million of its shares in September

$IAC Q1 letter all about the buybacks

Management Changes

$KIND weak guidance, CFO leaving

Walgreens’s chief medical officer is leaving, after new CEO Tim

Bumble, $BMBL, is down 83% from its IPO. It's CEO and founder just stepped down.

Change finally coming at $BAYRY $BAYN under new CEO Bill Anderson, following Q3 results release?

$SPHR Surprise resignation by their CFO on Friday afternoon

Investing

This is why it's so important the price you pay. $TTD priced for perfection. -28% on ER. $PUBM priced for no upside, +24%

Our Corporate Travel Survey "shows travel budgets +8% in 2024, a record figure

Polen Capital, which held their $ILMN shares since its all time high, and increased their stake by 80% in mid 2022 at a price of ~$200 when Icahn got involved, explains why they (like Ensemble) continue to hold the investment.

This is how your capital structure looks like after engaging in "liability management"

Cleaning out my office and ran across my Monster Beverage $MNST

Here is a historical $SENEA comp case study of a situation that didn't work out

Two very big insider sells registered for $SOFI today

Earnings

Sony Group Corporation $SONY Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary

The Trade Desk $TTD 3Q23 Earnings

Looks like $TTD said Q4 revenues will be $580-610M versus estimates at $611M which looks like a small miss at the midpoint but then the stock gets whacked -26% AH

CONGRATS TO THE MANAGEMENT OF $TTD FOR A GREAT TIMELY SALE BEFORE EARNINGS, CAN YOU PLS MANAGE MY MONEY

In Q3 2023, Warren Buffett continued to park Berkshire Hathaway's massive cash pile in short-term Treasury bills.

$BRK Q3 - Under The Hood

$STNG Q3 - Overall a very strong report!

Datadog 's $DDOG deceleration from 83% growth in early 2022 to 25% today

The U.S. Economy

Housing and used cars make up more than half of core CPI.

Most ppl don’t seem to realize housing prices rose in the 1970s and 1980s right thru 3 nasty recessions

The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker was 5.2% in October, unchanged from September.

Once banks tighten their standards for lending to companies, the default rate on junk bonds will also rise in the following quarter and a recession can't be far away.

Observation from being in Las Vegas this past weekend (seeing U2 at the Sphere)

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