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Celebrating Warren Buffett’s Birthday – InsideArbitrage Friday Wrap

  • September 1, 2023

FRIDAY WRAP

Our list of curated tweets for the current week

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Special Situations

Why "expensive" REITs are often best positioned coming out of a downturn:

If distressed real estate opportunities strike your fancy look no further then listed REITs.

Abcam founder, holder Jonathan Milner still evaluating Danaher deal

It's possible that rival bidders Agilent Technologies or Thermo Fisher made higher offers, though $ABCM picked $DHR bid as it would be more certain to gain antitrust approval"

FTC said it had secured a settlement resolving antitrust concerns over Intercontinental Exchange's $ICE proposed purchase of Black Knight $BKI

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn bet big that ICE would succeed in taking over mortgage software company Black Knight.

Traders are almost 100% certain that Amgen will complete its $28 billion takeover of Horizon after the FTC paused its in-house case to block the deal.

Funny point made by @matt_levine on the @boazweinstein $SCU saga: It's just a PA position for him and @BillAckman

$NUVA Globus Medical’s proposed takeover of NuVasive Inc. was not part of discussion in the FTC’s closed-door meeting Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the situation.

$HOLI A group of shareholders in Hollysys Automation Technologies is exploring ways to ramp up pressure on the company’s board to formally consider alternative takeover offer

CoreWeave, a cloud computing startup backed by Nvidia, is exploring a minority stake sale that values the company at as much as $8 billion

I forgot the new share repurchase rules will be rolling out in the 4th quarter 2023

$NTNX - Nutanix announces share repurchase program

Restaurant Brands International Inc. Announces Adoption of Share Repurchase Authorization

OSG Announces Off-Market Share Repurchase

$BEKE (+2.2% pre) KE Holdings Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2023 Unaudited Financial Results, Upsizing and Extension of Share Repurchase Program and a Special Cash Dividend

$PHIN, the independent company from the $BWA spinoff announces a new $150 million share repurchase

$DHR announced that it expects to complete the previously announced separation of Veralto Corporation on September 30, 2023

Investing

I didn’t see the markets hitting all time highs less than 2 years after the “Everything Bubble”

The value/growth relationship is at an extreme very similar to 2020

"Warren talks about these discounted cash flows. I've never seen him do one."

Buffett making the case for staying off this platform

Warren Buffett's Stock Portfolio over the past 20 years

Warren Buffett: "When you find a really good business run by first-class people, chances are a price that looks high isn't high.

Mark Cuban said that after investing nearly $20 million in 85 startups on “Shark Tank,” he’s taken a net loss across all of those deals combined.

That nice little jewelry bump is from the Tiffany acquisition.

All big winners go through phases where the business exceeds your expectations and then disappoints you a little because you let your expectations get too high.

The Justice Department and SEC are investigating Tesla's use of company funds on a secret project to build a glass house for CEO Elon Musk

Spent the whole day thinking about how you saved Dara/Uber from an awful Grubhub deal by overbidding on it, how your stock is still down 90% while the mkt approaches new highs

Hedge funds/large speculators remain NET short S&P 500 futures

HEICO ($HEI.A) FCF as a % of NI has =~135% for 23 yrs, Wencor (largest deal ever) adds a ton of non-cash amort + a tax shield to support cash flow

Vinfast is now the 3rd largest Automaker by Mkt Cap.

Are dollar stores just more saturated than bulls thought?

Not much to offer for IPOs … just $14.4 billion has been raised through IPOs on U.S. exchanges so far this year, down from peak of $242 billion through August in 2021

Sleep Number has the *craziest* stock chart $SNBR

Earnings

$UBS just reported a nearly $29 Billion profit during Q2 due to its acquisition of Credit Suisse

$DJI component Salesforce $CRM is taking off after an #earnings beat and raised full-year forecast.

$DELL crushes expectations for the quarter. 53% EPS beat and 10% revenue beat.

More of the same for Hock Tan and $AVGO

Our core customers continue to tell us they feel financially constrained

Dollar General with double miss + Revises outlook downward

Not only are they losing share, at a time when almost everyone else in retail has come to grips with inventory, both dollar store chains have made glacial progress.

$MMM 3M Agrees to Pay More Than $5.5 Billion Over Military Earplugs.

Stuffed in the footnotes of their 10-K’s, some may not know that $HD & $LOW actually report their flooring department sales annually

The Economy

One of the reasons we are not in recession yet despite higher rates It’s called lagged effects.

Guess what - student loan repayment has basically started up at full speed in August based on Dept of Education receipts into the US Treasury.

The Richmond Fed's gauge for future Capacity Utilization has been declining, then declining some more, then some more.

The Energy Department said it is planning to provide up to $12 billion in funding for automakers to retrofit existing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. for the production of electric and hybrid vehicles

Year-over-year home price shift

There’s an insurance shock hitting housing markets in Florida and California.

Since 2020, chinese homebuilders responsible for about 40% of Chinese home sales have defaulted

The EU is set to import record volumes of liquefied natural gas from Russia this year, despite aiming for the bloc to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

 

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