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The sell off that started last week accelerated this week when the Fed decided to increase its benchmark rate by 75 basis points and did not rule out another 75 basis point hike in their next meeting. We wrote the following in our last Friday Wrap,
“Earlier this week we explored bear market rallies in a post titled The Emotional Toll Of Bear Market Rallies and given market action during the last two days, it feels like the bear market rally we were experiencing since late May appears to have come to an end. It is hard to see an end to this challenging environment when fundamental conditions like inflation, high energy prices and supply chain issues have not been addressed. Experienced investors who have seen multiple market cycles like Stanley Drunkenmiller and Jamie Dimon think there is more pain ahead. There are some spots of optimism including commodities and the strategy of merger arbitrage, while impacted, has held up better than the overall market.”
The excesses we discussed in our November 2021 mid-month update A Time For Caution, continue to concern me and while this latest pullback has left some companies down more than 90% peak to trough, I don’t think we have bottomed just yet. It is not possible to time either market tops or bottoms and that is why I decided to update a bear market playbook I used in March 2020 and discussed it in more detail in our June 2022 mid-month update.
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Voluntary Disclosure: I hold a long position in Netflix (NFLX).
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