Merger activity decreased last week with four new deals announced and one deal completed. There was a decline in SPAC activity as well with 25 new SPAC IPOs announced last week compared to 36 in the previous week. As indicated in our latest insider weekends post, the record pace of SPAC IPO’s this quarter resulted in 250 SPACs year-to-date compared to just 11 during the same period in Q1 2020.
I was discussing risks associated with the merger arbitrage strategy with a subscriber last Friday and the big drop a target company might experience if a deal fails. While only 4% or 5% of all deals fail as discussed in our 2017 post Still Collecting Pennies In Front Of A Bulldozer, the post failure drop can be 30% or more depending on the premium paid for the target company. The flip side to this is bidding wars, which sometimes result in significantly higher prices as we saw with the multiple rounds of bids from both Verizon and AT&T for Straight Path Communications in 2017.
We are now seeing something similar with Coherent (COHR) and a couple of other deals. Coherent (COHR) has received multiple bids ever since it agreed to be acquired by Lumentum Holdings (LITE) on January 19, 2021. The timeline of the ensuing bidding war for Coherent is given below:
The original cash plus stock deal was worth $212.11 per Coherent share based on Lumentum’s closing price on January 19, 2021. The current offer from IIVI values the company at $264.69. As always, we track the entire history of this and every active deal in our Merger Arbitrage Tool (MAT) that automatically updates itself during market hours.
Apart from Coherent, Aegion (AEGN) also received a rival bid from Apollo Global Management (APO) and Pluralsight (PS) entered into a revised merger agreement with Vista Equity Partners.
There were two new deals announced in the Deals in the Works section last week.
SPAC Arbitrage
There were 25 new SPAC IPOs and 6 new SPAC business combinations announced last week. You can find the new SPAC IPO announcements in our SPACs tool here.
Weekly Spread Changes:
The table below shows weekly spread changes between March 5, 2021, and March 12, 2021.
Symbol | Quote | Acquiring Company | Acquiring Company Quote | Current Spread | Last Week Spread | Spread Change Weekly | Deal Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COHR | 247.9 | Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) | 88.72 | 6.77% | -14.09% | 20.86% | Cash Plus Stock |
HCAP | 8.26 | Portman Ridge Finance Corporation (PTMN) | 2.17 | 11.62% | 5.36% | 6.26% | Cash Plus Stock |
DOYU | 14.21 | HUYA Inc. (HUYA) | 26.35 | 35.37% | 29.96% | 5.41% | All Stock |
PS | 22.29 | Vista Equity Partners (N/A) | 0.94% | -1.46% | 2.40% | All Cash | |
SOGO | 8.17 | Tencent Parties (N/A) | 8.94% | 7.36% | 1.58% | All Cash | |
FBSS | 20.72 | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (VABK) | 30.43 | -0.87% | 1.71% | -2.58% | All Stock |
CXDC | 1.13 | Faith Dawn Limited and Faith Horizon (N/A) | 6.19% | 9.09% | -2.90% | All Cash | |
OSN | 4.88 | New Ossen Group Limited (N/A) | 0.00 | 4.51% | 7.82% | -3.31% | All Cash |
NEOS | 0.9261 | Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) | 8.59 | 0.92% | 5.41% | -4.49% | All Stock |
AEGN | 29.13 | New Mountain Capital, L.L.C. (N/A) | -10.74% | 0.00% | -10.74% | All Cash |
Deal Statistics:
Total Number of Deals Closed in 2021 | 31 |
Total Number of Deals Not Completed in 2021 | 1 |
Total Number of Pending Deals | |
Cash Deals | 55 |
Stock Deals | 20 |
Stock & Cash Deals | 12 |
Special Conditions | 2 |
Total Number of Pending Deals | 89 |
Total Deal Size | $522.07181 billion |
New Deals:
Deal Updates:
Closed Deals:
Top 10 deals with largest spreads:
Symbol | Announced Date | Acquiring Company | Closing Price | Last Price | Closing Date | Profit | Annualized Profit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DOYU | 10/12/2020 | HUYA Inc. (HUYA) | $19.24 | $14.21 | 06/30/2021 | 35.37% | 119.52% |
APHA | 12/16/2020 | Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) | $23.11 | $20 | 06/30/2021 | 15.53% | 52.49% |
CHNG | 01/06/2021 | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) | $25.75 | $22.9 | 12/31/2021 | 12.45% | 15.56% |
HCAP | 12/23/2020 | Portman Ridge Finance Corporation (PTMN) | $9.22 | $8.26 | 06/30/2021 | 11.62% | 39.28% |
XLNX | 10/27/2020 | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) | $139.68 | $125.45 | 12/31/2021 | 11.34% | 14.18% |
WLTW | 03/09/2020 | Aon plc (AON) | $246.24 | $222.76 | 06/30/2021 | 10.54% | 35.62% |
ATH | 03/08/2021 | Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) | $55.24 | $50.14 | 01/31/2022 | 10.18% | 11.50% |
SOGO | 09/29/2020 | Tencent Parties (N/A) | $8.95 | $8.17 | 07/31/2021 | 8.94% | 23.46% |
AJRD | 12/20/2020 | Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) | $51.00 | $47.16 | 12/31/2021 | 8.14% | 10.18% |
IPHI | 10/29/2020 | Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) | $175.55 | $162.99 | 12/31/2021 | 7.71% | 9.63% |
List of all pending deals:
Conclusion:
Four deals received approval from their shareholders last week, amidst deals that had competitive bids and agreements being revised in spite of a decreased activity in both the M&A and SPAC areas. An article titled, ‘Short Sellers Boost Bets Against SPACs‘, that was published Sunday morning by the Wall Street Journal, resonates with our observation from last week, where we mentioned, “Just like there were opportunities on the long side of the SPAC trade, we are likely to see interesting opportunities on the short side after some of the more speculative SPAC business combinations stumble in the coming years.”
Disclaimer: I have long positions in Change Healthcare (CHNG) and Otelco (OTEL). Please do your own due diligence before buying or selling any securities mentioned in this article. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the content or data provided in this article.
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