InsideArbitrage October 2026 Mid-Month Update – A Bidding War For Mattel

One of the two spotlight ideas in our August 2026 Special Situations Newsletter was the dating app company Bumble (BMBL). With a definitive merger announced this week, the position is now up over 109% in the model portfolio and I figured it would be fun to cover another potential deal situation. This is one that I took some time to warm up to but the more I looked into it, the more I liked it.

The spread on the Bumble deal is now less than 2% and so I am going to replace it in the model portfolio with Mattel at our standard position size of $10,000. I will continue holding Bumble in my personal portfolio until the deal closes.

Mattel (MAT): $16.65

Market Cap: $4.76B

Enterprise Value: $6.99B

I am going to take a different approach to presenting this idea from my usual writeup. It is still 100% human generated.

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